Internal and external trends: LME tin fell slightly. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month price of LME tin was 34,735 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.22%. Shanghai Tin’s main 2109 contract was volatile and adjusted, the highest within the day was 231,690 yuan/ton, the lowest was 227,820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 229,030 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the closing price of the previous trading day; transaction volume was 83,751 lots, an increase of 14,320 hands; positions held 31,917 Hand, daily reduction of 1473 hand. The basis difference is 4720 yuan/ton; the price difference between Shanghai and tin from 2109 to 21 October is 1430 yuan/ton.
Market focus: (1) ADP employment in the United States increased by 330,000 in July, estimated to be 683,000. The previous value was 692,000, the lowest since February.
Spot analysis: On August 5, spot 1# tin was quoted at RMB 233000-234500/ton, and the average price was RMB 233,750/ton, unchanged. Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals reported that domestic spot tin prices remained stable today, and refineries’ willingness to maintain prices increased. After receiving goods on demand for two consecutive trading days, purchases tended to be flat today, mainly receiving goods on demand, and market transactions performed generally.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 1885 tons, a daily reduction of 140 tons; LME tin inventory is 2270 tons, a daily reduction of 25 tons.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Tin’s main 2109 contract are 20225, -710, short positions 19,686, -1420, and net positions +539, +710. Long and short are reduced, and net long is increased.
Market Research and Judgment: Recently, Fed officials have released a hawkish signal that the Fed may reduce QE faster than expected, triggering concerns about shrinking currency liquidity and combating market risk sentiment. The upstream tin ore imports increased substantially in June compared to the previous month, but the outbreak in Myanmar rebounded in July. There were still new infections in Ruili, Yunnan, and the interference of tin ore imports increased; the supply of tin ore was tight, and the domestic electricity curtailment and production policies were frequently superimposed, leading to smelting Production is difficult to increase too much, and the supply shortage situation is difficult to change; at the same time, the Shanghai-London ratio has been low for a long time, and the net export of refined tin is still high. In addition, the recent high tin price correction has increased the willingness of downstream purchases and the domestic inventory has continued to decline. The price of tin is expected to be high. adjust. Technically, Shanghai Tin’s main 2109 contract positions continued to fall, focusing on the 20-day moving average support. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate between 227000-232000 and only 2000 for each.