According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1,407.5 RMB/ ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1,525 RMB/ ton, with a price increase of 8.35% and a year-on-year increase of 155.98%. On September 23, the thermal coal commodity index was 183.73, an increase of 0.3 points over the previous day, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 311.03% over the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
Analysis: in terms of origin, affected by the environmental protection policy and the recent dual control policy of energy consumption, some coal mines are still in the shutdown stage, the overall supply of power coal is still tight, and coal phenomena such as coal boarding in coal mines are still common; In terms of port, the peak period of civil power has passed, but the downstream demand is still hot, and the available coal storage days of the power plant are at a low level. The power plant just needs to purchase and passively accepts the high price.
SunSirs analysts believe that due to the weather, the peak power consumption of the power plant has passed, and the daily consumption shows a downward trend, but the inventory of the power plant is still at a low value, and the demand for replenishment is still increasing. It is comprehensively estimated that in the later stage, China thermal coal is still strong, depending on the downstream market demand.