In 2021, the oil and fats sector has been performing strongly, and the overall performance has risen wildly. The grease index has also risen by about 200 points. Compared with 2013, the grease index has risen by more than 200 points; compared with the lowest point of 632 points in 2019, it has risen by 640 points. As of September 29, the oil and fat index has hit a 9-year historical high.
The Grease Index on September 30 was 1294 points, a record high in the cycle, an increase of 104.75% from the lowest point of 632 points on January 2, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 till now)
Since 2013, the oil and fats sector has been on a downward slope. After a short period of consolidation, the index has repeatedly hit new lows. By 2019, the oil and fat index has fallen from 1054 points to 632 points, a drop of more than 640 points. Beginning in May 2020, the oil and fats sector began to re-start the rising market, and it has risen until 2021, with the index rising from 726 points to 1294 points, an increase of 568 points.
Since 2013, the oil and fats sector has begun a period of decline. The terminal demand for soybean oil and palm oil is general, and the loose supply situation continues, and the market has been sluggish. Until 2017, there was a small peak in the oil and fats sector, and after the rebound, it entered a period of rapid decline. Beginning on May 1, 2020, the oil and fats sector has officially entered a period of crazy rising, which has risen until September 2021, and the index has risen by more than 75%.
How will the oils and fats sector repeatedly hit historical highs in 2021?
From January to September 2021, soybean oil palm rapeseed oil staged three rounds of big increases, and prices have repeatedly hit record highs. Soybean oil broke 10,000 yuan, palm oil came to 9,700 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil reached 11,800 yuan/ton.
First round: In March, under the support of multiple bullish factors such as crude oil surge, insufficient stocks in soybean oil plants, palm oil production forecast in Malaysia, strong exports, biodiesel policy and other supportive factors, soybean oil, palm and rapeseed oil rose wildly. In March On the 8th, soybean oil rose by more than 300 yuan per ton at the opening of the early trading session, and the spot price has exceeded 10,000 yuan. Compared with the beginning of the year, the increase has been close to 18%. Palm oil rose to 8,400 yuan tons, and the price increased by 14.86% from the beginning of the year. On March 9, the price of rapeseed oil rose to 11,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.74% from the beginning of the year.
Second round: In May, due to the sharp increase in the price of soybean oil on the outer plate during the May 1st holiday, the soybean oil palm rapeseed oil futures supplemented the rise after the holiday. Coupled with the good export data of Palm Oil Palm Oil, soybean oil palm oil stocks are at a low level, which is supported by bullishness. Soybean oil palm oilseed oil continues to rise. As of May 13, the average soybean oil market price was 9,926 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.83% from the beginning of the month; the average palm oil market price was 9,350 yuan/ton, an 11.71% increase from the beginning of the month. On May 9, the average price of rapeseed oil was 11,475 yuan. /Ton.
Third round: In September, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, affected by the holiday, oils and fats started to fall after a short period of adjustment. Under the influence of the power restriction policy, dozens of soybean oil plants in Northeast China have been shut down until the National Day. The supply of soybean oil is tight, palm oil’s own inventory is low, and the stock market is nearing October. Soybean oil palm oil has soared. Seed oil keeps rising. Among them, soybean oil palm oil rose sharply. Soybean oil rose more than 200 yuan per ton in a single day, and the mainstream quotation broke through the 10,000 yuan line, setting historical highs repeatedly. As of September 30, soybean oil rose to 10064 yuan/ton, palm oil followed the rise, and the price broke one hundred in a single day. The mainstream quotation rose to 9,800 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil rose to 11,500 yuan/ton.
During the National Day, the shutdown plan of soybean oil plants in North China is as follows:
During the November period, dozens of soybean crushing companies stopped work for maintenance, soy oil stocks were low, and the tight supply pattern was difficult to alleviate in the short term. Coupled with the strong palm oil in the market, there is still room for soybean oil palm rapeseed oil to rise after the holiday.