Disk situation: C2201 reported highest at 2483, lowest at 2468, closing at 2481, +0.04% from the previous trading day; trading volume 407121; position 867857, -39268, basis difference -31; C1-5 month spread -35. CS2201 reported the highest of 2965, the lowest of 2919, and the closing of 2964, which was +1.44% from the previous trading day; trading volume was 44642, holdings 49958, -1037, basis +136; CS11-January spread +60.
News: 1. According to the consulting agency AgRural, as of September 23, the planting of the first season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in 2021/22 has been completed by 26%, which is an increase of 4% from a week ago and 26% in the same period last year. 2. Ukrainian customs data show that as of September 22, Ukraine’s exports of grains (including beans) in the year 2021/22 were 12.115 million tons, an increase of 1.343 million tons over the same period of the previous year.
Spot market: The purchase price of 15% moisture in the Jinzhou Port area is RMB 2420-2450/ton, and the flat price is RMB 2480-2490/ton. Starch Hebei quoted 3310; Jilin quoted 3100; Shandong quoted 3300. (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Warehouse receipts: 24331 corn warehouse receipts, 0 pieces; corn starch warehouse receipts 7426 pieces, 0 pieces.
Position analysis: The top 20 long positions of corn C2201 contract mainstream funds reported 636105 hands, -26005 hands, short positions reported 699017 hands, and -27481 hands. Cornstarch CS2201 contract mainstream funds top 20 long positions reported 34,543 hands, +1554 hands, short positions reported 42260 hands, +1364 hands.
Summary: The first 2021/22 forecast data released by the Chicago Agricultural Resources Corporation shows that the total corn output in Brazil in 2021/22 is expected to reach 111.99 million tons, an increase of 36.4% over the previous year. The supply is expected to increase, and the US corn crop harvest is progressing smoothly. , The seasonal harvest pressure on the US corn market still exists. However, analysts predict that the US Department of Agriculture’s September 30 quarterly inventory report will lower corn inventories. Domestically, the current weather factors affect the progress of corn harvesting and drying, and the concentrated launch of autumn corn may also be delayed. Processing companies and China National Grain Storage Co., Ltd. have begun to open warehouses one after another, and the northern ports have opened new grains, and this year’s corn harvesting time is slower than usual. The supply of dry grain in the market may be tight, which is good for the market. The continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuai production area in North China has aggravated the difficulty of harvesting new corn, and also caused damage to new corn in some areas and reduced production. The supply of corn at the grassroots level has also been affected. The market supply continues to be tight. The volume of deep-processing companies’ factory door arrivals has declined, and the power curtailment policy in many places has caused deep-processing companies to become more worried. The operating rate has rebounded. The demand for corn purchases has improved. . However, it is forecasted that the rainfall in North China will gradually decrease at the end of September and early October, and the quantity of new grains may accelerate again in the later period, and the easing of supply is expected to remain. On the disk, corn has maintained a volatile trend after the recent rebound, and the intensity remains to be seen. Wait and see for the time being before the holiday.
The progress of corn listing has slowed down due to the influence of the weather, the quantity of deep processing arrivals has decreased, the purchase price is relatively strong, and the cost support has increased. However, processing profits have improved, and under the influence of the power curtailment policy, corporate worries have increased, operating rates have picked up, and short-term starch supply is expected to increase. In general, the recent starch futures prices have rebounded following the corn market. However, in the case of continued decline in inventories, the trend of starch is stronger than that of corn, so wait and see for the time being before the holiday.