Cobalt prices fell consecutively in August
In August, the cobalt market failed to continue the rise in July. Cobalt prices continued to fall in August, and the cobalt market continued to decline. As of August 17, the cobalt price was 362,333.34 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.72% from the 376,333.34 yuan/ton on August 1.
New energy vehicles hit a new high and the “three yuan” battery gradually shrinks
The latest data released by the China Automobile Association shows that in July, my country’s new energy vehicle production and sales were 284,000 and 271,000, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times and 1.6 times respectively. From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country were 1.504 million and 1.478 million, respectively, a year-on-year increase of two times. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to set new historical records; correspondingly, the growth of ternary batteries slowed down and the installed capacity shrank.
According to the July monthly power battery data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of output, in July 2021, the output of ternary batteries was 8.0GWh, accounting for 46.0% of total output, a year-on-year increase of 144.0%, and a month-on-month increase of 8.6%; phosphoric acid The iron-lithium battery output was 9.3GWh, accounting for 53.8% of the total output, a year-on-year increase of 236.2% and a month-on-month increase of 20.0%. In terms of vehicle loading, in July 2021, a total of 5.5 GWh of ternary batteries was installed, up 67.5% year-on-year and a decrease of 8.2% from the previous month; the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 5.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 235.5%, and a month-on-month increase of 13.4%. From the battery output and installed capacity statistics, it can be seen that the output of ternary batteries has maintained rapid growth, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined from the previous month. The market performance of ternary batteries in July has been poor; The volume of vehicles rose sharply year-on-month, and the increase was much higher than that of ternary batteries. The market share of ternary batteries is gradually shrinking, and demand in the cobalt market is expected to decline in the future.
Slowdown in the growth of the mobile phone market
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, domestic mobile phone production in June was 143.224 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in July, 28.676 million mobile phones were shipped in the domestic market, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%. From January to July, the total number of mobile phone shipments in the domestic market was 203 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. The production of mobile phones kept growing, but the growth rate decreased, and the growth of the mobile phone market slowed down. The mobile phone market is slowing down, and the growth of demand in the cobalt market will slow down.
According to monthly market data from the market research company Counterpoint, China’s smartphone sales in the second quarter of 2021 fell 13% from the previous month to 75 million units, and the second quarter sales also fell by 6% year-on-year. Sales in the second quarter of 2021 are the lowest since 2012. Samsung’s sales data show that Samsung’s smartphone shipments from April to June fell from approximately 76 million in the first quarter to approximately 59 million. The second quarter was hit hard by the epidemic, and the demand for smartphones from India declined, as well as some mobile phones. The tight supply of processors has affected Samsung’s mobile phone shipments. The sales volume in the second quarter hit a record low, the demand for the mobile phone market declined, and the demand for the cobalt market is expected to decline in the future.
The new energy vehicle market has risen sharply and the demand in the cobalt market has risen, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined, and the demand in the cobalt market has been lower than expected. In the mobile phone market, domestic mobile phone sales hit a record low in the second quarter, mobile phone manufacturers’ enthusiasm for production in the market outlook declined, orders for cobalt lithium batteries decreased, Samsung mobile phone shipments plummeted, global mobile phone sales declined, global mobile phone market production enthusiasm declined, and global cobalt demand declined . In general, demand in the cobalt market has grown slowly but far below market expectations. The upward momentum in the cobalt market is insufficient, and the downward pressure on cobalt prices has increased. The cost of cobalt ore is affected by the increase in transportation costs, and the room for cobalt prices to fall is limited, and the long-term new energy market is growing rapidly. The demand for the cobalt market is bullish in the future. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate in the range of 350,000 to 400,000 yuan/ton.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).