Spot price: Last week (10.9-10.15), the domestic spot price of polyester staple fiber continued to rise, and the transaction rebounded. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyester staple fiber in East China on October 15 was around 8,248 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% from the previous weekend and a year-on-year increase of 43.14%. Most manufacturers have raised their quotations by about 200-400 yuan/ton.
Futures market: On October 15, the main staple fiber futures PF2201 contract futures price closed at 8458, up 610 from last week, or 7.77%. Following the sharp rebound last week, it continued to rise sharply, and hit the second highest since its listing on Friday. The settlement price was 8,318 yuan; the trading volume was 1,628,385 lots; the open interest was 126,845, and the open interest increased by 15,496, with a basis of -70. Last week, the domestic polyester industry chain futures all rose sharply, with the main PTA rising 2.94% and the main ethylene glycol rising 9.01%.
Analysis: 1. U.S. crude oil broke through 80 last week, steadily rising for 5 consecutive days, and closed at 82 over the weekend; 2. Although PTA partially restarted last week, several leading companies continued to reduce production and reduce negative futures, and futures rose by nearly 3%; 3. Although the supply of ethylene glycol increased slowly last week, coal prices remained high. Futures’ daily limit on Friday rose more than 9%. 4. Last week, yarn companies started to resume expectations. In addition to low inventories, the willingness to stock up and purchase has increased. The price of pure polyester yarn has also risen due to the rise in cotton and the price of cotton yarn; 5. The cost of polyester staple fiber raw materials has continued last week. The upward trend, coupled with the expected expansion of power curtailment in Fujian, and the shrinking of supply, the domestic inventory is low due to dual control and dual restrictions and low profit margins, and the current short fiber futures prices continue to rise.
Forecast: Looking at the market outlook, the price of short-term polyester staple fiber may still have a momentum of impulsive momentum under the dual control policy to reduce production shutdowns and maintenance and the continued strong price of raw materials. However, the short-term increase is too large, and you need to pay attention to the risk of falling. Pay close attention to the changes in the dual control and dual reduction policy and the fluctuations on the cost side.
Related listed companies: Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Sinopec (600028), Sanfangxiang (600370), West China (000936), Xinfengming (603225), Jiangnan Gaoxian (600527), etc.